We test and report on time series modelling and forecasting using several US. Leading economic indicators (LEI) as an input to forecasting real US. GDP and the unemployment rate. These time series have been addressed before, but our results are more statistically significant using more recently...

This study follows a novel approach proposed by Angelico et al. (2022) using Twitter to measure inflation perception in Colombia in real time. By applying machine learning techniques, we implement two real-time indicators and show that both exhibit a dynamic similar to inflation and inflation...

Using state-of-the-art recurrent neural network architectures, this study attempts to predict credit default swap risk premia for BR[I]CS countries as accurately as possible. In the time series setting, these recurrent neural networks are ELMAN, NARX, GRU, and LSTM RNNs, considering local and...

Contrary to the number of unemployed or vacancies, the number of employees subject to social security contribu-tions (SSC) for Germany is published after a time lag of 2 months. Furthermore, there is a waiting period of 6 months until the values are not revised any more. This paper uses monthly...

This paper analyzes whether there exists a relationship between the slope of the yield curve and future economic activity in Mexico for the period 2004-2019. In particular, we evaluate whether such a relationship depends on the term premium. For this purpose, we estimate a threshold model in...

This study investigates the utility of business uncertainty indicators as predictive tools for forecasting economic activity in the context of Russia. In an era characterized by global economic volatility and geopolitical shifts, understanding the dynamics of economic uncertainty and its impact...

We extend a standard multivariate filter used to estimate the Output Gap (OG) in Chile to account for large economic shocks, such as those observed during the COVID-19 crisis. We propose two methodological extensions. First, we introduce exogenous supply shocks in the dynamics of potential...

This paper adopts a novel approach to studying the evolution of interest rate term structure over the U.S. business cycles and to predicting recessions. Applying an effective algorithm, I classify the Treasury yield curve into distinct shapes and find the less frequent shapes intrinsically...

Gustav A. Horn: In Zeiten globaler Konflikte Thomas Gehrig: Geopolitics, the End of Globalization? Doris Neuberger: Wege Europas zu mehr Autonomie im Zahlungsverkehr - die Rolle von privaten Akteuren Patrick Kaczmarczyk: Verflochtene Schicksale: Warum die Schuldenkrisen des globalen Südens auch...

This paper provides evidence on the effect of fiscal stimulus on economic activity in countries with different degrees of institutional quality. The identification strategy makes use of data on military expenditure to instrument government consumption using local lineal projections as presented...