One of the most fundamental issues worldwide is the economic interdependence of countries which affects their economic growth. Some new growth theorists such as Mankiw et al., Islam, Ertur and Koch, Lee, Yu and Yu Ho et al. consider geographical proximity and trade as spatial variables. This...

This paper aims to enrich the understanding and modelling strategies for cryptocurrency markets by investigating major cryptocurrencies´ returns determinants and forecast their returns. To handle model uncertainty when modelling cryptocurrencies, we conduct model selection for an autoregressive...

By applying the smile curve concept to regional value added growth rather than to levels, the paper claims that local value-added growth increases when a region is specialised in scarce natural resources or scarce human skills within a GVC. Under these circumstances, in fact, the region can...

This paper is concerned with the estimation of forecast error, particularly in relation to insurance loss reserving. Forecast error is generally regarded as consisting of three components, namely parameter, process and model errors. The first two of these components, and their estimation, are...

This study examines the spatial productivity and efficiency spillovers of Chinese provinces using a spatial Durbin production frontier model that accounts for persistent and transient efficiency using a panel dataset of Chinese provinces from 1985 to 2017. The role of spatial effects is often...

Uncertainty about the choice of identifying assumptions is common in causal studies, but is often ignored in empirical practice. This paper considers uncertainty over models that impose different identifying assumptions, which can lead to a mix of point‐ and set‐identified models. We propose...

Large Bayesian VARs are now widely used in empirical macroeconomics. One popular shrinkage prior in this setting is the natural conjugate prior as it facilitates posterior simulation and leads to a range of useful analytical results. This is, however, at the expense of modeling flexibility, as...

This paper examines the lead/lag relations between size-sorted portfolio returns through the lens of financial cycles governing these returns using a novel econometric methodology. Specifically, we develop a Markov-switching vector autoregressive model that allows for imperfect synchronization...

In the last two decades, advances in globalization have evolved remarkably and countries have become more integrated with the entire world. The implications of this process have attracted interest of researchers and monetary policy authorities. This paper provides an assessment of the impact of...