separate inclusion of a labor market in the model helps to anchor inflation even in a situation of adaptive expectations, a … positive output gap and inflation above target. The estimation results show that the adaptive learning model does a better job … and inflation far above the central bank target. …

We introduce a novel method to elicit belief distributions and apply it to elicit inflation expectations in a …-step process. First, participants specify their minimum and maximum expected inflation. They then use a graphical interface with … two sliders to adjust the mean and variance of their inflation belief distribution. We benchmark our method against the …

We explore the implications of heterogeneous, history-dependent inflation expectations in a general equilibrium setting …. We propose an experience-based expectations-augmented Kalman filter to represent consumers' heterogeneous inflation … replicates US consumers' inflation expectations and their heterogeneity across cohorts. We introduce this mechanism into a New …

Using a novel dataset that integrates inflation expectations with information on social network connections, we show … that inflation expectations within one's social network have a positive, causal relationship with individual inflation …, socially determined inflation expectations induce imperfect risk-sharing and can affect the inflation and real output …

Whittle estimation method, the research examines the longmemory properties of headline inflation through monthly data from … January 1996 to January 2023. The study expands upon existing knowledge of inflation persistence by exploring its changes and … the various patterns of inflation persistence in Europe. The findings reveal significant differences in the persistence of …

We test for state-dependent bias in the European Central Bank's inflation projections. We show that the ECB tends to … underpredict when the observed inflation rate at the time of forecasting is higher than an estimated threshold of 1.8%. The bias is … most pronounced at intermediate forecasting horizons. This suggests that inflation is projected to revert towards the …

initial macroeconomic conditions of the simulations correspond to the high inflation environment of early 2022. The simulation … rational expectations for all Taylor rule parametrisations. Under hybrid expectations, the inflation rate is much more … persistent than under the rational expectations; three years is not enough to reach the inflation target of two percent, even for …

In a recent paper "Stochastic Chain-Ladder Reserving with Modeled General Inflation", the effects of modeled general … inflation on non-life claims reserving were studied using, along with the so called "market approach", a stochastic two …-factor market model, characterized by deterministic expected inflation. In the present paper, we repeat the same study, again with …

Inflation expectations are a crucial variable for central banks. However, empirically examining their properties is … lags in the relationships. The study covers 12 inflation-targeting economies from the European region. The results suggest …

inflation expectations to income growth expectations for the average consumer, with considerable heterogeneity in pass …-through associated with sociodemographic factors. The results also indicate that higher inflation expectations cause an increase in … inflation and expected utility. Taken together, the survey results and model analysis provide a labor market account of why …