We nowcast and forecast Austrian economic activity, namely real gross domestic product (GDP), consumption and investment, which are available at a quarterly frequency. While nowcasting uses data up to (and including) the quarter to be predicted, forecasting uses only data up to the previous...

Economy-wide models are an important tool used by fiscal authorities and central banks to support the provision of sound assessment of the economic outlook. The Treasury Macroeconometric Model of Australia ("EMMA") is a framework to support macroeconomic forecasting, and counterfactual policy...

Economy-wide models are an important tool used by fiscal authorities and central banks to support the provision of sound assessment of the economic outlook. The Treasury Macroeconometric Model of Australia ("EMMA") is a framework to support macroeconomic forecasting, and counterfactual policy...

Using a unique database, this paper examines the interconnection among stress indicators of the Spanish financial markets during the period of January 1999 to April 2021, applying both the connectedness framework and the Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregressive connectedness approach. Our...

This paper studies the joint dynamics of U.S. inflation and a term structure of average inflation predictions taken from the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF). We estimate these joint dynamics by combining an unobserved components (UC) model of inflation and a sticky‐information...

We consider a set of potentially misspecified structural models, geometrically combine their likelihood functions, and estimate the parameters using composite methods. In a Monte Carlo study, composite estimators dominate likelihood-based estimators in mean squared error and composite models are...

In this paper, we explore machine learning (ML) methods to improve inflation forecasting in Brazil. An extensive out-of-sample forecasting exercise is designed with multiple horizons, a large database of 501 series, and 50 forecasting methods, including new ML techniques proposed here,...

This research introduces an innovative GDP nowcasting strategy tailored for developing countries, specifically addressing challenges related to limited data timeliness. The study centers on Bolivia, where the official monthly indicator of economic growth is released with a substantial delay of...

Digital technology changes the innovation mode, and the innovative factors among innovation subjects will be digitally empowered. The government plays a very important role in determining the allocation of innovative factors. Therefore, it is necessary to clarify the main source of power for the...

This paper provides new indices of global macroeconomic uncertainty and investigates the cross-country transmission of uncertainty using a global vector autoregressive (GVAR) model. The indices measure the dispersion of forecasts that results from parameter uncertainty in the GVAR. Relying on...