Showing 1 - 10 of 476
We nowcast and forecast Austrian economic activity, namely real gross domestic product (GDP), consumption and … autoregressive model according to Ghysels (2016) and mixed data sampling approaches, and compare their forecast and nowcast … data. We are particularly interested in whether explicitly considering different regimes improves the nowcast. Thus we …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014432187
In this paper, we explore machine learning (ML) methods to improve inflation forecasting in Brazil. An extensive out-of-sample forecasting exercise is designed with multiple horizons, a large database of 501 series, and 50 forecasting methods, including new ML techniques proposed here,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014382916
economic growth is released with a substantial delay of up to six months. The proposed nowcast estimates effectively narrow …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015078275
in-sample and out-of-sample accuracy. In particular, we observe that our GDP growth nowcast closely tracks the recent …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013329304
Economy-wide models are an important tool used by fiscal authorities and central banks to support the provision of sound assessment of the economic outlook. The Treasury Macroeconometric Model of Australia ("EMMA") is a framework to support macroeconomic forecasting, and counterfactual policy...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012696721
Economy-wide models are an important tool used by fiscal authorities and central banks to support the provision of sound assessment of the economic outlook. The Treasury Macroeconometric Model of Australia ("EMMA") is a framework to support macroeconomic forecasting, and counterfactual policy...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012662974
Digital technology changes the innovation mode, and the innovative factors among innovation subjects will be digitally empowered. The government plays a very important role in determining the allocation of innovative factors. Therefore, it is necessary to clarify the main source of power for the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015074486
We estimate new indices measuring financial and economic (in)stability in Austria and in the euro area. Instead of estimating the level of (in)stability in a financial or economic system we measure the degree of predictability of (in)stability, where our methodological approach is based on the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012792745
Expectations affect economic decisions, and inaccurate expectations are costly. Expectations can be wrong due to either bias (systematic mistakes) or noise (unsystematic mistakes). We develop a framework for quantifying the level of noise in survey expectations. The method is based on the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014308585
This paper studies volatility spillovers in credit default swaps (CDS) between the corporate sectors and Latin American countries. Daily data from October 14, 2006, to August 23, 2021, are employed. Spillovers are computed both for the raw data and for filtered series which factor out the effect...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014495999