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Disentangling permanent and transitory monetary shocks with a nonlinear taylor rule

Lafuente, Juan Angel; Monfort, Mercedes; Pérez, Rafaela; … - In: Economics : the open-access, open-assessment journal 15 (2021) 1, pp. 150-162

This article provides an estimation method to decompose monetary policy innovations into persistent and transitory components using the nonlinear Taylor rule proposed in Andolfatto, Hendry, and Moran (2008) [Are inflation expectations rational? Journal of Monetary Economics , 55 , 406-422]. To...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012887149

Parameter learning and change detection using a particle filter with accelerated adaptation

Gellert, Karol; Schlögl, Erik - In: Risks : open access journal 9 (2021) 12, pp. 1-18

This paper presents the construction of a particle filter, which incorporates elements inspired by genetic algorithms, in order to achieve accelerated adaptation of the estimated posterior distribution to changes in model parameters. Specifically, the filter is designed for the situation where...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012794245

Analysis forecasting of gasoline prices in some ASEAN countries by using state space representation on vector autoregressive model

Mustofa Usman; Komarudin, M.; Nurhanurawati, Nurhanurawati - In: International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy : IJEEP 13 (2023) 6, pp. 194-202

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014433779

State-space implementation in forecasting carbon and gas prices in commodity markets

Azhar, Rialdi; Wisnu, Febryan Kusuma; Kesumah, Fajrin … - In: International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy : IJEEP 12 (2022) 3, pp. 280-286

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013285561

Stochastic conditional duration model with intraday seasonality and limit order book information

Toyabe, Tomoki; Nakatsuma, Teruo - In: Journal of risk and financial management : JRFM 15 (2022) 10, pp. 1-25

It is a widely known fact that the intraday seasonality of trading intervals for financial transactions such as stocks is short at the beginning of business hours and long in the middle of the day. In this paper, we extend the stochastic conditional duration (SCD) model to capture the pattern of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013471159

Return based risk measures for non-normally distributed returns : an alternative modelling approach

Samunderu, Eyden; Murahwa, Yvonne T. - In: Journal of risk and financial management : JRFM 14 (2021) 11, pp. 1-48

can be used in risk measurement and forecasting. Value at risk (VaR) is a widely used measure of financial risk, which … series analysis conducted and led to the forecasting of the returns. It was noted that these methods could not be used in … relation of assets with each other. Furthermore, we also examined the environment as a whole, then applied forecasting models …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012795821

Towards a target employment rate within age and gender groups

Jaworski, Stanisław; Zielińska-Kolasińska, Zofia - In: Statistics in transition : an international journal of … 22 (2021) 4, pp. 213-225

Quarterly employment rates in European countries are analysed in terms of the likelihood of achieving a specific employment rate within age and gender groups in a five-year horizon. The German employment rate serves as a benchmark for this research. The likelihood is estimated by a Monte-Carlo...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012818225

Energy market risk management under uncertainty: a VAR based on wavelet approach

Alqaralleh, Huthaifa; Al-Saraireh, Ahmad; Canepa, Alessandra - In: International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy : IJEEP 11 (2021) 5, pp. 130-137

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012651703

Stock profiling using time-frequency-varying systematic risk measure

Mestre, Roman - In: Financial innovation : FIN 9 (2023) 1, pp. 1-29

This study proposes a wavelets approach to estimating time-frequency-varying betas in the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) framework. The dynamic of systematic risk across time and frequency is analyzed to investigate stock risk-profile robustness. Furthermore, we emphasize the effect of an...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014289044

The comovements of tail risks in time and frequency domains : evidence from US and emerging Asian stock markets

Baba, Boubekeur - In: Future Business Journal 10 (2024) 1, pp. 1-20

The study applies the wavelet local multiple correlations to investigate the level of comovements among the tail risks of US and emerging Asian stock markets in both time and frequency domains. Through this empirical investigation, we address the question of how the transmission of tail risk...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015411007