We examine the connection between discrete-time models of financial markets and the celebrated Black--Scholes--Merton (BSM) continuous-time model in which ''markets are complete." Suppose that (a) the probability law of a sequence of discrete-time models converges to the law of the BSM model and...

We show that Bayesian posteriors concentrate on the outcome distributions that approximately minimize the Kullback–Leibler divergence from the empirical distribution, uniformly over sample paths, even when the prior does not have full support. This generalizes Diaconis and Freedman's (1990)...

We use an evolutionary model to determine which misperceptions can persist. Every period, a new generation of agents use their subjective models and the data generated by the previous generation to update their beliefs, and models that induce better actions become more prevalent. An equilibrium...