Contrary to the number of unemployed or vacancies, the number of employees subject to social security contribu-tions (SSC) for Germany is published after a time lag of 2 months. Furthermore, there is a waiting period of 6 months until the values are not revised any more. This paper uses monthly...

We study the situation when a commodity-exporting economy is under sanctions and cannot use its accumulated fx-reserves or attract new fx-debt to smooth import restrictions amid slower decline of income flow from a commodity-export. Our study attempts to determine the adequate response of the...

This study examines the impact of sentiment shock, which is defined as a stochastic innovation to the Housing Market Confidence Index (HMCI) that is orthogonal to past housing price changes, on aggregate housing price changes and housing price volatility. This paper documents empirical evidence...

Purpose: This article investigates stock return predictability in the Korean stock market using the methodology of dynamic factor analysis. Design/methodology/approach: This article collects monthly data on the equity risk premium on the KOSPI and twelve financial and macroeconomic variables...

We assess the forecasting performance of the nowcasting model developed at the New York FED. We show that the observation regarding a striking difference in the model's predictive ability across business cycle phases made earlier in the literature also applies here. During expansions, the...

This study follows a novel approach proposed by Angelico et al. (2022) using Twitter to measure inflation perception in Colombia in real time. By applying machine learning techniques, we implement two real-time indicators and show that both exhibit a dynamic similar to inflation and inflation...

We estimate sectoral spillovers around the Great Moderation with the help of forecast error variance decomposition tables. Obtaining such tables in high dimensions is challenging because they are functions of the estimated vector autoregressive coefficients and the residual covariance matrix. In...

This paper analyzes the effects of an unfunded pension system on economic growth using an extended overlapping generations model to include the informal sector. Emerging countries usually have a more significant informal sector than advanced ones. The findings based on the Thai economy data...

We construct an index for measuring negative economic sentiment in Finland by using news titles collected from the Finnish broadcasting company Yle's archive. Our approach uses supervised machine learning text classification for detecting news titles featuring negative economic sentiment, and...