We study the relationship between monetary policy and long‐term rates in a structural, general equilibrium model estimated on both macro‐ and yield‐data from the United States. Regime shifts in the conditional variance of productivity shocks, or "uncertainty shocks," are a crucial driver...

We assess the quantitative relevance of expectations-driven sovereign debt crises, focusing on the Southern European crisis of the early 2010s and the Argentine default of 2001. The source of multiplicity is the one in Calvo (1988). Key for multiplicity is an output process featuring long...