The correct modeling of the interest rates term structure should definitely be considered an aspect of primary importance since the forward rates and the discount factors used in any financial and risk analysis are calculated from such structure. The turbulence of the markets in recent years,...

This study compares and contrasts the multiple characterizations of mean reversion in financial time series as regards the restrictions they imply. This is accomplished by translating them into statements about an alternative measure, the "Average Crossing Time" or ACT. We argue that the ACT...

The asymptotic distribution of the linear instrumental variables (IV) estimator with empirically selected ridge regression penalty is characterized. The regularization tuning parameter is selected by splitting the observed data into training and test samples and becomes an estimated parameter...

This study develops a model to predict and explain short-term fluctuations in the Brazilian local currency interest rate term structure. The model relies on the potential relationship between these movements and key macroeconomic factors. The methodology consists of two stages. First, the...

This paper adopts a novel approach to studying the evolution of interest rate term structure over the U.S. business cycles and to predicting recessions. Applying an effective algorithm, I classify the Treasury yield curve into distinct shapes and find the less frequent shapes intrinsically...

The article analyzes the interaction between monetary and fiscal policy in Mexico. We calibrated a semi-structural model for a small open economy, based on Aguilar and Ramírez-Bulos (2018), for Mexico by using quarterly data from 2001Q1 to 2019Q4. The fiscal policy block models the fiscal...

In this paper, we develop a structural model to estimate the current level of the natural rate for a small open economy, featuring a rich set of shocks to provide economic intuition for its underlying drivers. The model follows the New Keynesian tradition with several frictions and is able to...

The dangers posed by natural disasters are a source of concern for policymakers. Severe occurrences caused by the devastation may contribute to the economic collapse and increase in sovereign debt. A catastrophe bond (CAT bond) can be utilized to transfer catastrophe risk to the financial...

This paper investigates how different parametrisations of the monetary policy reaction function and different mechanisms of expectation formation shape the macroeconomic outcomes in the estimated Smets-Wouters type of DSGE model. The initial macroeconomic conditions of the simulations correspond...

Risk premium plays an important role in stock investing. Experiments have shown that value stocks typically have a higher average return than growth stocks; however, this effect persists indefinitely, even disappearing in some stages. Some studies suggested high volatility in the series of...