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empirical basis for forecasting soybean yields and informing policy decisions under increasing climate uncertainty. These models …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015431707
The authors replicate and extend the Monte Carlo experiment presented in Doz, Giannone and Reichlin (A Quasi-Maximum Likelihood Approach For Large, Approximate Dynamic Factor Models, Review of Economics and Statistics, 2012) on alternative (time-domain based) methods for extracting dynamic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012221951
low forecasting power. Therefore, our recommendation is to revise its use. By optimally selecting the CPI components to be …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014382964
We propose a framework for consistently evaluating core inflation measures via a straightforward application of sound statistical inference principles. Under this framework, inflation measures (both headline and core) are regarded as estimators tracking the economy's true, unobserved inflation...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014496895
This paper presents a set of new core inflation measures for Brazil based on the Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) method. The measures are based on the official target used in the Brazilian inflation targeting regime. The period of analysis ranges from the beginning of the inflation targeting...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015410473
Oil price showed sharp fluctuations in recent years which revived the interest in its effect on inflation. In this paper, we discuss the relationship between oil price and inflation in Spain, at national and regional levels, and making the distinction between energy and non-energy inflation. To...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012389041
the current monetary policy framework and the challenges in transitioning towards FFIT. Given that forecasting is central … to FFIT, we develop a practical model-based forecasting and policy analysis system (FPAS) to support transition to FFIT …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012486242
We present a first assessment of the predictive ability of machine learning methods for inflation forecasting in Costa …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012545612
-of-sample forecasting that the three principal components of global inflation play a significant role in explaining and predicting Korean …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012294082
policy is not implemented in the same way and the NNAR models are better for inflation forecasting. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012939069