This paper shows that the integrated modified OLS (IM-OLS) estimator developed for cointegrating linear regressions in Vogelsang and Wagner (2014a) can be straightforwardly extended to cointegrating multivariate polynomial regressions. These are regression models that include as explanatory...

We consider integrated modified least squares estimation for systems of cointegrating multivariate polynomial regressions, i. e., systems of regressions that include deterministic variables, integrated processes and products of these variables as regressors. The errors are allowed to be...

We consider fully modified least squares estimation for systems of cointegrating polynomial regressions, i. e., systems of regressions that include deterministic variables, integrated processes and their powers as regressors. The errors are allowed to be correlated across equations, over time...

When using vector autoregressive (VAR) models for approximating time series, a key step is the selection of the lag length. Often this is performed using information criteria, even if a theoretical justification is lacking in some cases. For stationary processes, the asymptotic properties of the...

This paper develops a dynamic portfolio selection model incorporating economic uncertainty for business cycles. It is assumed that the financial market at each point in time is defined by a hidden Markov model, which is characterized by the overall equity market returns and volatility. The risk...

Agriculture, and especially soybean production, has a critical role in Argentina's economy, as a major contributor to GDP and export revenue. This paper studies the impact of climate variability on soybean yields in Argentina using a novel department-level dataset spanning 1980-2023. We estimate...

This paper develops residual-based monitoring procedures for cointegrating polynomial regressions, i. e. , regression models including deterministic variables, integrated processes as well as integer powers of integrated processes as regressors. The regressors are allowed to be endogenous and...

This paper develops residual-based monitoring procedures for cointegrating polynomial regressions (CPRs), i.e., regression models including deterministic variables and integrated processes, as well as integer powers, of integrated processes as regressors. The regressors are allowed to be...

The purpose of this study is to analyse the influence of exchange rate shocks on foreign trade (exports and imports) of fifteen economies within the ECOWAS sub- region. To accomplish the goal of this paper, Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) procedure was employed to investigate the impact...

Objective: The objective of the article is to examine the export-led growth hypothesis in the Southern African Customs Union (SACU). Research Design & Methods: This study employs annual data on output, exports, imports, and a structural dummy variable for SACU countries, namely, South Africa,...