I use Bayesian VARs with stochastic volatility to forecast global temperatures and sea level and ice cover in the Northerin emisphere until 2010, by exploiting (i) their long-run equilibrium relationship with climate change drivers (CCDs) and (ii) the relationship between world GDP and...

Data from 20 hyperinflations provide no evidence of a Laffer curve for seignorage: rather, the relationship between money growth and seignorage has been uniformly positive at all inflation rates. Consistent with this, evidence shows that the most plausible money demand specification for...

I use Bayesian VARs to forecast global temperatures anomalies until the end of the XXI century by exploiting their cointegration with the Joint Radiative Forcing (JRF) of the drivers of climate change. Under a ‘no change’ scenario, the most favorable median forecast predicts the land...

We explore the welfare costs of inflation originating from lack of liquidity satiation for Weimar Republic's hyperinflation and three high-inflation countries. Towards the peak of Weimar's hyperinflation the costs are estimated to have been equal to nearly 20 per cent of income. For Israel,...

We study whether the response of the economy to structural shocks changes at the zero lower bound. Monte Carlo evidence suggests that VARs have a limited ability to detect changes in impulse response functions at the ZLB compared to the standard environment with positive interest rates. This...

We argue that Gibson's paradox has nothing to do with the Gold Standard per se, and it rather originates from low-frequency variation in the natural rate of interest under certain types of monetary regimes that make inflation I(0) and (approximately) zero-mean. Although the Gold Standard is the...

We revisit the estimation of the welfare costs of inflation originating from lack of liquidity satiation for 11 low-inflation and 5 high-inflation countries, and for Weimar Republic's hyperinflation. Our evidence suggests that, contrary to the implicit assumption in much of the literature, these...