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Filiz, Ibrahim; Judek, Jan René; Lorenz, Marco; … - In: Journal of risk and financial management : JRFM 14 (2021) 12, pp. 1-27

Technological progress in recent years has made new methods available for making forecasts in a variety of areas. We examine the success of ex-ante stock market forecasts of three major stock market indices, i.e., the German Stock Market Index (DAX), the Dow Jones Industrial Index (DJI), and the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012799168

Nudging the trendsetters : increasing second-dose HPV vaccination in Bogota, Colombia

Martínez, Déborah; Díaz, Lina; Maldonado Zambrano, … - 2023

from Bogota's Secretariat of Health in a field experiment, we measure the impact of various norm nudges, including trending …. These findings underscore the importance of tailoring nudge strategies to the unique characteristics and preferences of the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014540586

Variable slope forecasting methods and COVID-19 risk

Leightner, Jonathan Edward; Inoue, Tomoo; Micheaux, … - In: Journal of risk and financial management : JRFM 14 (2021) 10, pp. 1-22

There are many real-world situations in which complex interacting forces are best described by a series of equations. Traditional regression approaches to these situations involve modeling and estimating each individual equation (producing estimates of "partial derivatives") and then solving the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012628841

Risks of observable and unobservable biases in artificial intelligence predicting consumer choice

Teleaba, Florian; Popescu, Sorin; Olaru, Marieta; … - In: Amfiteatru economic : an economic and business research … 23 (2021) 56, pp. 102-119

, we show that regret aversion (unobservable bias) significantly reduces extremeness aversion (observable bias) and … mediates the influence of cognitive regulatory focus (unobservable bias). …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012821258

Biased health perceptions and risky health behaviors : theory and evidence

Arni, Patrick; Dragone, Davide; Götte, Lorenz; … - 2020

This paper investigates the role of biased health perceptions as driving forces of risky health behavior. We define absolute and relative health perception biases, illustrate their measurement in surveys and provide evidence on their relevance. Next, we decompose the theoretical effect into its...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012219501

How much do we learn? : measuring symmetric and asymmetric deviations from Bayesian updating through choices

Aydogan, Ilke; Baillon, Aurélien; Kemel, Emmanuel; Li, Chen - In: Quantitative economics : QE ; journal of the … 16 (2025) 1, pp. 329-365

bias. Additionally, we show how to identify these two forms of biases from choices. In an experiment, we found that the … subjects exhibited confirmatory bias by misreading 19% of the signals that contradicted their priors. They were also …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015190350

Analyst forecasts during the COVID-19 pandemic : evidence from REITs

Anglin, Paul M.; Cui, Jianxin; Gao, Yanmin; Zhang, Li - In: Journal of risk and financial management : JRFM 14 (2021) 10, pp. 1-23

The COVID-19 pandemic disrupts capital markets and confuses decision makers. This event represents an opportunity to better understand how financial analysts forecast earnings. We focus on forecasts for Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) in the United States, since REITs are relatively...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012628786

How manipulable are prediction markets?

Rasooly, Itzhak; Rozzi, Roberto - 2025

In this paper, we conduct a large-scale field experiment to investigate the manipulability of prediction markets. The … main experiment involves randomly shocking prices across 817 separate markets; we then collect hourly price data to examine …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015372547

Measuring long-run expectations that correlate with investment decisions

Haan, Peter; Sun, Chen; Weinhardt, Felix; Weizsäcker, Georg - 2025

Different methods of eliciting long-run expectations yield data that predict economic choices differently well. We ask members of a wide population sample to make a 10-year investment decision and to forecast stock market returns in one of two formats: they ei- ther predict the average of annual...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015437172

Research on performance forecasting bias in start-up companies

Konno, Yukiko - In: Cogent economics & finance 10 (2022) 1, pp. 1-13

If a company’s corporate performance forecasting bias is not zero and it continues to over- or under-predict actual … performance, capital investments and employment will deviate from their expected levels. Therefore, forecast bias is a very … important issue for a company’s management. However, few empirical studies exist on corporate performance forecasting bias in …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013373064