This paper examines the predictive power of time-varying risk aversion over payoffs to the carry trade strategy via the cross-quantilogram methodology. Our analysis yields significant evidence of directional predictability from risk aversion to daily carry trade returns tracked by the Deutsche...

The aim of this study is to understand the effect of the recent novel coronavirus pandemic on investor herding behavior in global stock markets. Utilizing a daily newspaper-based index of financial uncertainty associated with infectious diseases, we examine the association between...

This paper examines the propagation of oil price uncertainty shocks to real equity prices using a large-scale Global Vector Autoregressive (GVAR) model of 26 advanced and emerging stock markets. The GVAR framework allows us to capture the transmission of local and global shocks, while...

The goal of this study is to examine the role of geopolitical risks as a driver of stock market returns in the context of the energy-stock market nexus with a particular emphasis on the intermediary role of energy supply for Turkiye. Our findings confirm the role of GPRs as a net transmitter of...

Examining the gradual information diffusion hypothesis of Hong et al. (2007)in an emerging market context, we show that industry returns possess predictive information regarding the direction of the aggregate stock market in Borsa Istanbul, both in- and out-of-sample, and that the predictive...

We examine the impact of the global economic activity, oil supply, oil-specific consumption demand, and oil inventory demand shocks on the expected aggregate skewness of the United States (US) economy, obtained based on a data-rich environment involving 211 macroeconomic and financial variables...

While there is a large body of literature on oil uncertainty-equity prices and/or returns nexus, an associated important question of how oil market uncertainty affects stock market bubbles remains unanswered. In this paper, we first use the Multi-Scale Log-Periodic Power Law Singularity...

We analyze the predictive effect of monthly global, regional, and country-level financial uncertainties on daily gold market volatility using univariate and multivariate GARCH-MIDAS models, with the latter characterized by variable selection. Based on data over the period of July 1992 to May...