Using a large, nationally representative survey of US consumers, we estimate a causal 20 percent pass-through from inflation expectations to income growth expectations for the average consumer, with considerable heterogeneity in pass-through associated with sociodemographic factors. The results...

We study how monetary policy communications associated with increasing the federal funds rate causally affect consumers inflation expectations in real time. In a large-scale, multi-wave randomized controlled trial (RCT), we find weak evidence that communicating these policy changes lowers...

We estimate the causal effects of a shift in the future expected exchange rate of a local currency against the US dollar on a representative sample of firms in a small open economy. We survey a nationally representative sample of firms and provide the one-year-ahead nominal exchange rate...

Using a novel dataset that integrates inflation expectations with information on social network connections, we show that inflation expectations within one's social network have a positive, causal relationship with individual inflation expectations. This relationship is stronger for groups that...

We explore the implications of heterogeneous, history-dependent inflation expectations in a general equilibrium setting. We propose an experience-based expectations-augmented Kalman filter to represent consumers' heterogeneous inflation expectations, where heterogeneity arises from an...