A novel approach to inference for a specific region of the predictive distribution is introduced. An important domain of application is accurate prediction of financial risk measures, where the area of interest is the left tail of the predictive density of logreturns. Our proposed approach...

This paper examines how the concentration of large firms influences the fiscal multiplier effects of public investment in transport infrastructure. Using data from 1,891 Peruvian municipalities and firm-level information, the analysis exploits a quasi-experimental setting stemming from an...