We study euro-area risk-adjusted expected inflation and the inflation risk premium at different maturities, leveraging … inflation swaps, inflation options and survey-based forecasts. We introduce a model that features time-varying long-term average … inflation and time-varying inflation volatility and we anchor market-based risk-adjusted measures of expected inflation to …

-ante perspective, disaster risk behaves as a negative demand shock and lowers the natural rate and inflation, even if disasters hit … temporarily higher natural rate and inflation if supply-side effects prevail. If agents' risk aversion increases temporarily …, disasters may generate larger demand effects and lead to a lower natural rate and inflation. If supply-side effects dominate …

I document the response of the inflation expectations, and pricing and labour demand decisions of Italian firms to … randomly provided information about recent inflation and assess the causal effect of the former on firms’ decisions. I use a … standard menu cost model to show that conventional IV2SLS estimates based on variation of agents’ inflation expectations …

variables over and above their effects on inflation may no longer be valid in models that consider frictions in financial … output stabilization, while both strict inflation targeting and a standard rule are less effective. The gains are amplified …

We construct a Bayesian vector autoregressive model with three layers of information: the key drivers of inflation … information is more crucial for accurately forecasting euro area inflation. Our empirical analysis reveals the importance of … including the key drivers of inflation and taking into account the multi-country dimension of the euro area. The results show …

Global developments play an important role in domestic inflation rates. Previous literature has found that a … substantial amount of the variation in a large set of national inflation rates can be explained by a single global factor. However …, inflation volatility has been typically neglected, while it is clearly relevant both from a policy point of view and for …

Inflation in the euro area has been falling steadily since early 2013 and at the end of 2014 turned negative. Part of … by means of sign restrictions) on inflation in the euro area. The analysis suggests that in the last two years inflation … Bank from reducing the short-term rates to support economic activity and align inflation with the definition of price …

sunspot that deanchors inflation expectations matches the main empirical features of the Japanese deflationary process during … the “lost decade”. The results also highlight the key role of the assumption about the anchoring of inflation expectations …

Empirical studies of the shoe-leather costs of inflation are typically computed using M1 as a measure of money. Yet … moderate value of the inflation rate, thereby justifying a deviation from the Friedman rule in favor of the Fed's current …

implications of variable labor force participation rates for inflation and establish the following result: if endogenous movements … dynamics. Indeed, during recessions, the upward pressures on inflation stemming from the lack of a downward adjustment in real …