Showing 1 - 10 of 80
This paper investigates the US housing market from just before the Great Recession onward (2006-2019) and assesses the viability of stock-flow matching in generating the observed outcomes. The paper documents that the probability a house sells declines sharply after listing for two weeks....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013470294
and equities by using the VAR-DCC-GARCH model. Specifically, by accounting for the systematic patterns of commodity price … volatility, namely, seasonality and maturity effects for the pre-financialisation (1993-2003) and post-financialisation (2004 … futures’ volatility before the financialisation period, open interest as a measure of liquidity has a negative effect after …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013218287
Mainstream economic research regards private debt as a determinant of GDP growth in the longrun. Levine (2005) surveys in details this branch of literature and explains the channels by which debt fuels growth. In this paper we switch the focus from the long to the short-run and study whether...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011584900
One of the leading methods of estimating the structural parameters of DSGE models is the VAR-based impulse response … response parameters exceeds the number of VAR model parameters. Situations in which this order condition is violated arise …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011431276
We assess the contribution of "undue optimism" (Pigou) to short-run fluctuations. In our analysis, optimism pertains to total factor productivity which determines economic activity in the long run, but is not contemporaneously observed by market participants. In order to recover optimism shocks...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010328714
dynamic systems. Restrictions on the coefficients of an unrestricted VAR are proposed that are binding only in a limit as the … number of endogenous variables tends to infinity. It is shown that under such restrictions, an infinite-dimensional VAR (or … IVAR) can be arbitrarily well characterized by a large number of finite-dimensional models in the spirit of the global VAR …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010276215
The unexpected outcome of the Brexit vote in June 2016 provides a rare macroeconomic experiment to study the aggregate consequences of a sudden change in expectations regarding future economic prospects. Using synthetic control methods, we show that forward looking households and businesses...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011777645
. Using historical data from 1973 to 2012 and vector autoregression (VAR)-based impulse response functions, we find a positive …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011794215
This paper quantifies the finance uncertainty multiplier (i.e., the magnifying effect of the real impact of uncertainty … stress). Working with a VAR framework and a set-identification strategy which focuses on - but it is not limited to … - restrictions related to these two dates, we estimate the finance uncertainty multiplier to be equal to 2, i.e., credit supply …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012269496
. We document two new facts using VAR methods. First, a (positive) shock to future TFP generates a significant decline in … various credit spread indicators considered in the macro-finance literature. The decline in the credit spread indicators is …, VAR methods also establish a tight link between TFP news shocks and shocks that explain the majority of un …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012425634