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Growth Expectations, Undue Optimism, and Short-Run Fluctuations

Enders, Zeno; Kleemann, Michael; Müller, Gernot - CESifo - 2013

We assess the contribution of “undue optimism” (Pigou) to short-run fluctuations. In our analysis, optimism pertains to total factor productivity which determines economic activity in the long run, but is not contemporaneously observed by market participants. In order to recover optimism...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011148853

Energy Use and Economic Growth in Africa: A Panel Granger-Causality Investigation

Arouri, Mohamed El Hedi; Youssef, Adel Ben; M'Henni, Hatem - CESifo - 2014

We make use of a bootstrap panel analysis of causality between energy use and economic growth for a sample of sixteen African countries over the period 1988-2010. Our results show that growth and energy use are strongly linked in Africa. However, African countries are heterogeneous and there is...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010877974

Effectiveness and Transmission of the ECB's Balance Sheet Policies

Boeckx, Jef; Dossche, Maarten; Peersman, Gert - CESifo - 2014

crisis within a structural VAR framework. An expansionary balance sheet shock stimulates bank lending, stabilizes financial …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010887047

Infinite Dimensional VARs and Factor Models

Chudik, Alexander; Pesaran, M. Hashem - CESifo - 2007

dynamic systems. Restrictions on the coefficients of an unrestricted VAR are proposed that are binding only in a limit as the … number of endogenous variables tends to infinity. It is shown that under such restrictions, an infinite-dimensional VAR (or … IVAR) can be arbitrarily well characterized by a large number of finite-dimensional models in the spirit of the global VAR …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005766069

The Impact of Economic Globalization on the Shadow Economy in Egypt

Farzanegan, Mohammad Reza - 2017

This study examines the economic globalization and the shadow economy nexus in Egypt. Using time series data from 1976 to 2013, the impulse response analysis shows that the response of the shadow economy in Egypt to positive shocks in economic globalization is negative and statistically...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012956723

Modelling the Egyptian Shadow Economy : A Currency Demand and A MIMIC Model Approach

Hassan, Mai - 2016

We estimate the size and trend of the Egyptian shadow economy using two of the most common methods: the currency demand approach and the structural equation MIMIC model. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first comprehensive study to estimate the size of the shadow economy in Egypt during...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012997329

A Macroeconomic Analysis of Energy Subsidies in a Small Open Economy

Glomm, Gerhard - 2015

We construct a dynamic model of a small open economy to analyze the effects of large energy subsidies. The model includes domestic energy production and consumption, trade in energy at world market prices, as well as private and public sector production. The model is calibrated to Egypt and used...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013027091