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Breunig, Christoph; Grabova, Iuliia; Haan, Peter; … - 2019

The rational expectations assumption, e.g. in life-cycle models and portfolio-choice models, prescribes agents to have model-consistent beliefs and to avoid systematic prediction errors. In reality, justi cation and identification of expectations are nontrivial. One way to solve this problem is...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012139064

Households' probabilistic inflation expectations in high-inflation regimes

Becker, Christoph; Dürsch, Peter; Eife, Thomas A.; … - 2023

household surveys use a response scale that is tailored towards low-inflation regimes. Using data from a randomized controlled …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014472800

Households' financial resilience, risk perceptions, and financial literacy : evidence from a survey experiment

Bucher-Koenen, Tabea; Fessler, Pirmin; Silgoner, Maria … - 2023 - This version: 21 December 2023

future events on households’ financial situation. Households are asked to assess specific risks for their own household … (treatment) or for a household with similar characteristics (control). On average, households assign a lower probability to … shocks that negatively affect personal finances if asked for their own household compared to a similar household. We do not …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014473206

Inflation expectations, inflation target credibility and the COVID-19 pandemic : new evidence from Germany

Coleman, Winnie; Nautz, Dieter - 2021

Using the exact wording of the ECB's definition of price-stability, we started a representative online survey of German citizens in January 2019 that is designed to measure long-term inflation expectations and the credibility of the inflation target. Our results indicate that credibility has...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012590362

Inflation target credibility in times of high inflation

Coleman, Winnie; Nautz, Dieter - 2022

We use a representative online survey to investigate the inflation expectations of German consumers and the credibility of the ECB's inflation target during the recent high inflation period. We find that credibility has trended downwards since summer 2021, reaching an all-time low in April 2022....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013285915

Households' expectations and regional COVID-19 dynamics

Cato, Misina; Schmidt, Tobias - 2023 - 16.01.2023

In this paper we analyze how consumers in Germany updated expectations about in aflation in response to the COVID-19 outbreak. We use a fixed effects model to estimate the effect of regional exposure to COVID-19 cases, the stringency of restriction measures and local unemployment rates on...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014227597