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"conventional" view on the effects of monetary policy on bubbles, as well as with the predictions of bubbleless models. We also …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012458683
these linked bubbles primarily focus on the irrationality of investor speculation and the corresponding stock price behavior … examine a broad cross-section of security price data to evaluate the causes of the bubbles. Using newly collected stock prices … in 1720. Our findings are consistent with the hypothesis that financial bubbles require a plausible story to justify …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012463318
Modern central bankers are the risk managers of the financial system. They take actions based not only on point forecasts for growth and inflation, but based on the entire distribution of possible macroeconomic outcomes. In numerous instances monetary policymakers have acted in ways designed to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012466123
We ask whether stock returns in France, Germany, Japan, the UK and the US are predictable by three instruments: the dividend yield, the earnings yield and the short rate. The predictability regression is suggested by a present value model with earnings growth, payout ratios and the short rate as...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012470517
We quantify the importance of non-monetary news in central bank communication. Using evidence from four major central banks and a comprehensive classification of events, we decompose news conveyed by central banks into news about monetary policy, economic growth, and separately, shocks to risk...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012480685
We consider several economic uncertainty indicators for the US and UK before and during the COVID-19 pandemic: implied stock market volatility, newspaper-based economic policy uncertainty, twitter chatter about economic uncertainty, subjective uncertainty about future business growth, and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012481613
A pre-specified set of nine prominent U.S. equity return anomalies produce significant alphas in Canada, France, Germany, Japan, and the U.K. All of the anomalies are consistently significant across these five countries, whose developed stock markets afford the most extensive data. The anomalies...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012453902
Several studies based on US and UK data have used market value as an indicator of the firm''s expected R&D performance. However, there exist no investigations for the continental countries in the European Union, partly because the analysis is complicated by data availability problems. In this...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012468285
I adapt the methods of Gurkaynak, Sack, and Swanson (2005) to estimate two dimensions of monetary policy during the 2009-2015 zero lower bound period in the U.S. I show that, after a suitable rotation, these two dimensions can be interpreted as "forward guidance" and "large-scale asset...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012456855
Countries choose different strategies when responding to crises. An important challenge in assessing the impact of these policies is selection bias with respect to relatively time-invariant country characteristics, as well as time-varying values of outcome variables and other policy choices....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012457679