Showing 1 - 10 of 208
type of rational bubble that depends exclusively on dividends. We call such bubbles "intrinsic" bubbles because they derive … examples of rational bubbles, intrinsic bubbles provide an empirically plausible account of deviations from present …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012475954
This paper examines the economic environments in which past U.S. stock market booms occurred as a first step toward understanding how asset price booms come about and whether monetary policy should be used to defuse booms. We identify several episodes of sustained rapid rise in equity prices in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012467986
The link between monetary policy and asset price movements has been of perennial interest to policy makers. In this paper we consider the potential case for pre-emptive monetary restrictions when asset price reversals can have serious effects on real output. First, we provide some historical...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012469748
"conventional" view on the effects of monetary policy on bubbles, as well as with the predictions of bubbleless models. We also …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012458683
these linked bubbles primarily focus on the irrationality of investor speculation and the corresponding stock price behavior … examine a broad cross-section of security price data to evaluate the causes of the bubbles. Using newly collected stock prices … in 1720. Our findings are consistent with the hypothesis that financial bubbles require a plausible story to justify …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012463318
Several recent studies have attributed a large part of asset price volatility to self-fulfilling expectations. Such an explanation is unattractive to many since it allows allocations that need bear no particular relation to those implied by the economist's standard kit of
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012477101
This paper surveys the twentieth century booms and crashes in the American stock market, focusing on a comparison of the two most similar events in the 1920s and 1990s. In both booms, claims were made that they were the consequence a "new economy" or "irrational exuberance." Neither boom can be...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012466517
. The latter is more likely if bubbles develop along the expansionary path. These (rational) bubbles can emerge even when …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012468175
This paper specifies and estimates a structural dynamic stochastic model of the way individuals make retirement and saving choices in an uncertain world, and applies that model to analyze the effects of the stock market bubble on retirement behavior. The model includes individual variation both...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012469299
History is important to the study of financial bubbles precisely because they are extremely rare events, but history … can be misleading. The rarity of bubbles in the historical record makes the sample size for inference small. Restricting …%. In simple terms, bubbles are booms that went bad. Not all booms are bad …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012456977