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There has been a long-running debate about whether stock market prices are determined by fundamentals. To date no consensus has been reached. An important issue in this debate concerns the circumstances in which deviations from fundamentals are consistent with rational behavior. A...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012475283
I examine the impact of alternative monetary policy rules on a rational asset price bubble, through the lens of an overlapping generations model with nominal rigidities. A systematic increase in interest rates in response to a growing bubble is shown to enhance the fluctuations in the latter,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012459855
This paper presents evidence on attitude changes among investors in the US stock market. Two basic attitudes are explored: bubble expectations and investor confidence. Semiannual time-series indicators of these attitudes are presented for US stock market institutional investors based on...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012471792
We explore the implications of asset price volatility for the management of monetary policy. We show that it is desirable for central banks to focus on underlying inflationary pressures. Asset prices become relevant only to the extent they may signal potential inflationary or deflationary...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012471216
type of rational bubble that depends exclusively on dividends. We call such bubbles "intrinsic" bubbles because they derive … examples of rational bubbles, intrinsic bubbles provide an empirically plausible account of deviations from present …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012475954
not valid in general: as soon as bubbles affect interest rates, the fundamental value of a stock depends on whether or not …-bubble price. Under conditions made precise below, there can therefore be price decreasing bubbles, and an asset can be …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012476236
and Porter (1981) and Shiller (1981a). It appears that neither small sample bias, rational bubbles nor some standard …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012476489
bubbles in stock prices in a model in which stockholders have …rules out the existence of negative rational bubbles. The …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012477082
This paper reports empirical tests for the existence of rational bubbles in stock prices. The analysis focuses on a … extraneous variables. The tests are based on the theoretical result that, if rational bubbles exist, time series obtained by …. Applications of the time domain tests to simulated nonstationary time series that would be implied by rational bubbles indicates …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012477310
deterministic bubbles and stochastic bubbles, for a model of inflation and for a model of the evolution of price and quantity in the … market fora storable commodity, such as gold. The analysis focuses on stochastic bubbles as a possibility peculiarly … points to no compelling reason to rule out rational stochastic bubbles apriori, conventional behavioral assumptions imply …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012478044