We make use of the extant testing methodology of Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard (2006) and Aït-Sahalia and Jacod (2009a,b,c) to examine the importance of jumps, and in particular large and small jumps, using high frequency price returns on 25 stocks in the DOW 30 and S&P futures index. In...

Testing serial dependence is central to much of time series econometrics. A number of tests that have been developed and used to explore the dependence properties of various processes. This paper builds on recent work on nonparametric tests of independence. We consider a fact that characterises...

This paper considers alternative approaches to the analysis of large panel data models in the presence of error cross section dependence. A popular method for modelling such dependence uses a factor error structure. Such models raise new problems for estimation and inference. This paper compares...

Daily futures returns on six important commodities are found to be well described as FIGARCH fractionally integrated volatility processes, with small departures from the martingale in mean property. The paper also analyzes several years of high frequency intra day commodity futures returns and...

This study measures purchasing power parity (PPP) by means of the dynamic-factor errorcorrection model (DF-ECM) approach. Under this new approach, PPP is embedded in latent disequilibrium factors, which are extracted from a large variable set of bilateral price disparities; the factors are then...

This paper assesses the contribution of monetary policy to the dynamics of bond real returns. We assume that the monetary authority controls the short-term nominal interest rate. We then model exogenously the joint dynamics of the aggregate endowment and the monetary policy variable, and...

This paper analyzes a class of stochastic endogenous growth models with uninsurable idiosyncratic income risk. The model economy is populated by infinitely-lived households who own and operate their own business, work for a stock company, and participate in stock and bond markets. Households...

Realized volatility is a nonparametric ex-post estimate of the return variation. The most obvious realized volatility measure is the sum of finely-sampled squared return realizations over a fixed time interval. In a frictionless market, the estimate achieves consistency for the underlying...

I examine whether or not returns on stock markets are a leading indicator for real macroeconomic developments in Austria, Japan and the USA. Further I deal with the concept of stock market efficiency, the question whether or not information from real and financial sectors of the economy is...

In this paper, we examine the evolution of the S&P500 returns volatility around market crashes using a Markov-Switching model. We find that volatility typically switches into the high volatility state well before a crash and remains in the high state for a considerable period of time after the...