In this paper, the authors survey some of the recent techniques proposed in the literature to measure the trend component of output or potential output. Given the reported shortcomings of mechanical filters and univariate approaches to estimate potential output, the paper focusses on three...

In this paper, the authors survey some of the recent techniques proposed in the literature to measure the trend component of output or potential output. Given the reported shortcomings of mechanical filters and univariate approaches to estimate potential output, the paper focuses on three simple...

Over the past fifty years or so, macroeconometric models have passed through several stages. The latest-generation DSGE models are the most sophisticated of these macroeconomic decision-support tools.

This paper studies the local dynamic properties of a simple general equilibrium model with Social VAT. Strict balanced budget rules often lead to real indeterminacy of aggregate equilibrium, leaving room for «sunspots» fluctuations. In a closed-economy setup, social VAT escapes this property...

This paper investigates the characteristics of the Laffer curve in a neoclassical growth model of the US economy with incomplete markets and heterogeneous agents. The shape of the Laffer curve changes depending on which of transfers or government debt are varied to balance the government budget...

This paper examines issues related to the estimation of the government spending multiplier (GSM) in a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium context. We stress a potential source of bias in the GSM arising from the combination of Edgeworth complementarity/substitutability between private...

This paper investigates the effects of disinflation policies on key macroeconomic variables. Using postwar US data and episode techniques, we identify disinflation shocks as shocks that drive the inflation rate to a lower level in the long-run. We find that in the immediate aftermath of a...

The Euro area as a whole has experienced a marked downward trend in inflation over the past decades and, concomitantly, a protracted period of depressed activity. Can permanent and gradual shifts in monetary policy be held responsible for these dynamics? To answer this question, we embed...

This article assesses monetary policy's performances in the Euro zone in the face of supply shocks. We determine the responses of output, inflation, labor share and the nominal interest rate to a supply shock as identified through a structural VAR model. We then develop a DSGE model with nominal...

The present paper investigates the dynamic effects of disinflation shocks for a number of real macroeconomic variables in the euro area. Using structural VARs, we identify disinflation shocks as the only shocks that can exert a long--run effect on inflation as well as other nominal variables...