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In several recent studies unit root methods have been used in detection of financial bubbles in asset prices. The basic idea is that fundamental changes in the autocorrelation structure of relevant time series imply the presence of a rational price bubble. We provide cross-country evidence for...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011976947
Current best practice in central banking views a high level of monetary policy predictability as desirable. A clear … narrowly defined as the ability of the public to anticipate monetary policy decisions correctly over short horizons, the … understand the monetary policy framework of a central bank, i.e. its objectives and systematic behaviour in reacting to different …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011641200
This paper evaluates different models for the short-term forecasting of real GDP growth in ten selected European … monthly indicators for the nowcast and forecast of quarterly GDP growth. Amongst the latter, we consider small bridge …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011641205
We show that the news is a rich source of data on distressed firm links that drive firm- level and aggregate risks. The news tends to report about links in which a less popular firm is distressed and may contaminate a more popular firm. This constitutes a contagion channel that yields...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012162712
This paper develops Bayesian econometric methods for posterior inference in non-parametric mixed frequency VARs using additive regression trees. We argue that regression tree models are ideally suited for macroeconomic nowcasting in the face of extreme observations, for instance those produced...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012501159