Wie steht es um die Qualität der Schätzungen der direkten Bundessteuer durch die Eidgenössische Steuerverwaltung (ESTV) und die Finanzverwaltung (EFV)? Die KOF hat im Auftrag der beiden Verwaltungen deren Einnahmeprognosen einer Analyse unterzogen. Die Überprüfung der Schätzmethode der...

Using Swiss data from 1983 to 2008, this paper investigates whether growth rates of the different measures of the quantity of money and or excess money can be used to forecast inflation. After a preliminary data analysis, money demand relations are specified, estimated and tested. Then,...

This study utilizes the dynamic factor model of Giannone et al. (2008) in order to make now-/forecasts of GDP quarter-on-quarter growth rates in Switzerland. It also assesses the informational content of macroeconomic data releases for forecasting of the Swiss GDP. We find that the factor model...

We study the transmission of monetary shocks and monetary policy with a behavioral model, corrected for potential misspecification using the DSGE-VAR framework elaborated by DelNegro and Schorfheide (2004). In particular, we investigate if the central bank should react to movements in the...

This paper provides empirical assistance in forecasting monetary policy in Switzerland. After the introduction, we provide a descriptive analysis of the four cycles of rising interest rates from 1979 to 2003. It is apparent that the individual cycles diverge to greater or lesser degrees from the...

The size premium, defined as the outperformance of equities of small and medium-sized companies compared with the shares of large companies, is subject to strong cyclical fluctuations over time. This study examines the predictability of this premium for the Swiss stock market. The forecasts used...

We investigate the effect of forecast uncertainty in a cointegrating vector error correction model for Switzerland. Forecast uncertainty is evaluated in three different dimensions. First, we investigate the effect on forecasting performance of averaging over forecasts from different models....

This paper applies the modelling strategy of Garratt, Lee, Pesaran and Shin (2003) to the estimation of a structural cointegrated VAR model that relates the core macroeconomic variables of the Swiss economy to current and lagged values of a number of key foreign variables. We identify and test a...

We investigate the effect of forecast uncertainty in a cointegrating vector error correction model for Switzerland. Forecast uncertainty is evaluated in three different dimensions. First, we investigate the effect on forecasting performance of averaging over forecasts from different models....

This study utilizes the dynamic factor model of Giannone et al. (2008) in order to make now-/forecasts of GDP quarter-on-quarter growth rates in Switzerland. It also assesses the informational content of macroeconomic data releases for forecasting of the Swiss GDP. We find that the factor model...