In this paper we analyze features of the recent business cycle with a New Keynesian small open economy DSGE model with labour market frictions and wage rigidity. The model complements the existing analytical tools of the Bank of Finland by enabling detailed analysis of labour markets in a DSGE...

We assess the macroeconomic impact of pandemic-related monetary policy measures of the ECB. Conditioning on counterfactual interest rate paths that would have materialised in the absence of the policies, the macroeconomic effects are measured using structural vector autoregressions. In the...

We study the yield curve control in Eurozone. We apply Chen, Cúrdia and Ferrero (2012) model that uses a financial friction to break Wallace's neutrality. We calibrate a bond supply shock that corresponds to the observed change in the time premium in euro area when the APP program was...

We study the effect of quantitative tightening both without forward guidance and with higher for longer guidance. This is done by simulating quantitative tightening strategies in a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model estimated with the euro area data. Quantitative tightening is...

We study whether the level of household indebtedness is related to the interest rate elasticity of private consumption. Looking at Finnish aggregate data, we find no robust evidence of increased interest rate elasticity of private consumption even as the household sector's debt-to-income ratio...

This article surveys both earlier and recent research on recession forecasting with probit based time series models. Most studies use either a static probit model or its extensions in order toestimate the recession probabilities, while others use models based on a latent variable ap-proach to...

This paper gives an overview on the use of macroprudential policy measures (MPMs) and capital flow management measures (CFMs) by emerging economies, and reviews literature on the effectiveness of these measures in containing the effects of large and volatile capital flows. The main findings of...