In this paper a familiar, but unsettling result in the foreign exchange literature is reexamined: that the forward rate is not an unbiased predictor of the future spot rate. The paper outlines why some frequently used tests of unbiasedness are noninformative in the sense that they are incapable...

Ford et al. (this issue) point out that the SURADF panel unit root test may be sensitive to panel composition. This reply shows that they overstate the case since they focus on a short time series of 44 observations. Type II errors are much more likely in this environment so that inconsistent...

A unit root testing procedure is presented that exploits the well-established power advantages of panel estimation while rectifying a deficiency in other panel unit root tests. This test (called SURADF) is based on seemingly unrelated regressions applied to Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) tests...

The crowding out debate fails to incorporate the impact of expansionary policy on interest rates for private sector borrowing through changes in perceived default risk. In a modified IS-LM model with default risk dependent on the state of the economy, government borrowing has an indeterminate...

A unit root testing procedure is presented that exploits the well-established power advantages of panel estimation while rectifying a deficiency in other panel unit root tests. This procedure, which takes into account contemporaneous cross-correlation and heterogeneous serial correlation of the...