Probabilistic forecasts play a significant role in a wide variety of economics activities. However, established econometric modeling approaches for probabilistic forecasts may yield unsatisfactory forecasting performance due to model misspecification. In my dissertation, I try to minimize such a...

Demographic transition is a set of changes in reproductive behaviour that are experienced as a society is transformed from a traditional pre-industrial state to a highly developed, modernized structure. The transformation is the substitution of slow growth achieved with low fertility and...