This study sets out a framework to evaluate the goodness of fit of stochastic mortality models and applies it to six different models estimated using English & Welsh male mortality data. The methodology exploits the structure of each model to obtain various residual series that are predicted to...

This study sets out a backtesting framework applicable to the multi-period-ahead forecasts from stochastic mortality models and uses it to evaluate the forecasting performance of six different stochastic mortality models applied to English & Welsh male mortality data. The models considered are:...

Presently Russia is experiencing the complicated process of transforming the economic system of central planning into a socially oriented market economy. Of great importance for the success of this process is the institutional reshaping of the agricultural sector, particularly the privatisation...

Der Einfluss der Zugehörigkeit zu Agroholdings in Russland auf die Produktivität landwirtschaftlicher Betriebe ist wissenschaftlich umstritten. Dennoch gibt es wenige Untersuchungen über den Integrationsprozess und die Entwicklung landwirtschaftlicher Betriebe, die in eine Agroholding...

We investigate the uncertainty of forecasts of future mortality generated by a number of previously proposed stochastic mortality models. We specify fully the stochastic structure of the models to enable them to generate forecasts. Mortality fan charts are then used to compare and contrast the...

Przeworski, Alvarez, Cheibub, and Limongi (2000) challenge the key hypothesis in modernization theory: political regimes do not transition to democracy as per capita incomes rise, they argue. Rather, democratic transitions occur randomly, but once there, countries with higher levels of GDP per...