This paper investigates why the forward premium predicts the future depreciation with the "wrong" sign and why the unobserved deviation from rational uncovered interest parity is negatively correlated with and is more volatile than the rationally expected depreciation. We examine the ability of...

This paper introduces monopolistic competition and increasing returns to scale into a monetary real business cycle (RBC) model to re-estimate the welfare costs of inflation. We first calibrate the model and show that it is capable of generating the observed aggregate fluctuations even when there...

We systematically study the value of the information contained in closed-end fund (CEF) premiums. We parametrically estimate CEF expected returns as a function of the history of CEF premiums, in addition to the current premium, and buy the quintile of funds with the highest expected returns and...

This paper studies the impact of sovereign debt rating changes on liquidity for stocks from 40 countries for the period 1990-2009. We find that sovereign rating changes significantly affect stock liquidity. The impact is stronger for downgrades than for upgrades, and is nonlinear in event size....

We seek to reconcile the debate about the price effect of risk-neutral skewness (RNS) on stocks. We document positive predictability from short-term skewness, consistent with informed-trading demand, and negative predictability from long-term skewness, consistent with skewness preference. A term...

We investigate how the interaction of entries and exits of informed institutional investors with market anomaly signals affects strategy performance. The long legs of anomalies earn more positive alphas following entries, while the short legs earn more negative alphas following exits. The...

A recursive test procedure is suggested that provides a mechanism for testing explosive behavior, date-stamping the origination and collapse of economic exuberance, and providing valid confidence intervals for explosive growth rates. The method involves the recursive implementation of a...

If transitory profitable trading opportunities exist, filter rules are used to mitigate transaction costs. We use a dynamic programming framework to design an optimal filter which maximizes after-cost expected returns. The filter size depends crucially on the degree of persistence of trading...