This paper examines the equation-by-equation accuracy of the Michigan and Fair model using the method in Fair (1980). Emphasis is placed on examining the possible misspecification of the equations. In an earlier study, Fair and Alexander (1984), we used the method to examine the accuracy of the...

An important question for central banks is how they should report the uncertainty of their forecasts. This paper discusses a way in which a central bank could report the uncertainty of its forecasts in a world in which it used a single macroeconometric model to make its forecasts and guide its...