This paper applies nonparametric test procedures to test for a shift in the volatility of nominal and real exchange rates for ERM members and nonmembers. The results imply a reduction in volatility for the ERM members, especially during the second half of the period of operation of the ERM. We...

This paper analyzes the short-term forecasts for industrial and developing countries produced by the International Monetary Fund, and published twice a year in the World Economic Outlook (WEO). For the industrial country group, the WEO forecasts for output growth and inflation are satisfactory...

This paper endeavours to illustrate the consequences of a credit squeeze by inserting a standard model of retail banks into some familiar macroeconomic models. Some possible policy conclusions are drawn about the benefits of incentives to increase lending at these times, and to reduce it in much...