Using a set of standard success criteria, we show that Riksbank foreign-exchange interventions between 1993 and 2002 lacked forecast value; that is, the observed number of successes was not significantly greater - and usually substantially smaller - than the number one would anticipate given the...

An argument that despite ballooning federal debt levels, no proof exists that government budget deficits are related to interest rates or real exchange rates, and that the size and composition of the government's budget are at least as critical as the federal deficit in determining the nation's...

Foreign-exchange-market intervention is generally ineffective when undertaken independent of monetary policy. But when undertaken as a goal of monetary policy, exchange-rate management can compromise price stability. This Economic Commentary explains the difficulties of implementing an...

An argument that despite complaints about the persistent U.S.-Japanese trade imbalance, enacting policies to restrict Japan's access to our markets will have few lasting effects on either country's overall trade balance, and that trade imbalances are instead appropriate reflections of domestic...

We recently invited four international economists to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland to discuss global developments and to help us identify and understand the key international risks that these developments present for U.S. monetary policy. This Commentary develops a key macroeconomic...

Analysts caution that rapid foreign economic growth could induce a depreciation of the dollar, as international investors diversify their portfolios in favor of higher returns abroad. Although we cannot establish a simple relationship between foreign growth and the dollar, we can conclude that...

A look at the pros and cons of replacing Mexico's central bank with a currency board, explaining that although a currency board would eliminate monetary policy discretion and help to restore faith in the peso's purchasing power, it would also prevent exchange-rate changes from aiding economic...