This article discusses recent experiences with the Numeral Unit Spread Assessment Pedigree (NUSAP) system for multidimensional uncertainty assessment, based on four case studies that vary in complexity. We show that the NUSAP method is applicable not only to relatively simple calculation schemes...

The DG JRC organised in 9-10 June 2015 a workshop "Significant Digits: Responsible Use of Quantitative Information", mostly targeted at European Commission's colleagues, which invited to reflection on the problem of irresponsible misuse of quantitative information in policy relevant matters.

The DG JRC organised in 9-10 June 2015 a workshop "Significant Digits: Responsible Use of Quantitative Information", mostly targeted at European Commission's colleagues, which invited to reflection on the problem of irresponsible misuse of quantitative information in policy relevant matters.

The topic of uncertainty, risk and ignorance, and one may add probability, is controversial both across and within professions. While Frank Knight and Maynard Keynes both believed that risk and uncertainty are quite different objects, generations of Bayesian statisticians and economists have...

This report is the result of work carried out by the Centre for the Study of the Sciences and the Humanities at the University of Bergen, Norway. The work was commissioned by the European Commission's Joint Research Centre at Ispra (Italy), and as such this report is the final deliverable of our...

This paper offers an approach to assess the quality of foresight knowledge deployed or generated during foresight exercises. Although 'foresight knowledge' is a special case, the idea of having a procedure, an approach or a method available for assessing the quality of knowledge is tempting:...