Using median-unbiased estimation based on Augmented-Dickey-Fuller (ADF) regressions, recent research has questioned the validity of Rogoff's "remarkable consensus" of 3-5 year half-lives of deviations from PPP. The confidence intervals of these half-life estimates, however, are extremely wide,...

The Taylor rule has become the dominant model for academic evaluation of out-of-sample exchange rate predictability. Two versions of the Taylor rule model are the Taylor rule fundamentals model, where the variables that enter the Taylor rule are used to forecast exchange rate changes, and the...

This paper provides evidence on the unit root hypothesis and long-term growth by allowing for two structural breaks. We reject the unit root hypothesis for three-quarters of the countries approximately 50% more rejections than in models that allow for only one break. While about half of the...

In light of the substantial movement towards trade liberalization during the postwar period, this paper attempts to determine if, and when, countries experienced statistically significant changes in the paths of their export-GDP and import-GDP ratios. We find that: (1) most trade ratios...

For decades, the prevailing sentiment among economists was that growth rates remain constant over the long run. Kaldor considered this to be one of the six important 'stylized facts' that theory should address, and until the emergence of endogenous growth models, this was a fundamental feature...

Do severe recessions associated with financial crises cause permanent reductions in potential GDP, or does the economy return to its trend? If the economy eventually returns to its trend, does the return take longer than the return following recessions not associated with financial crises? We...

This paper evaluates out-of-sample exchange rate predictability of Taylor rule models, where the central bank sets the interest rate in response to inflation and either the output or the unemployment gap, for the euro/dollar exchange rate with real-time data before, during, and after the...

This paper investigates the question of whether there exists evidence in support of inflation convergence within the European Union. The analysis also focuses on whether the Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM) helped to accelerate inflation convergence in its member countries. The results of this...

This paper proposes an explicit test for determining the significance and the timing of" slowdowns in economic growth during the postwar period. We examine a large sample of" countries (both industrialized and developing), and find that a majority though not all " exhibit a significant...

We study the behavior of inflation rates among the 12 initial Euro countries in order to test whether and when the group convergence initially dictated by the Maastricht treaty and now by the ECB, occurs. We also assess the impact of events such as the advent of the Euro and the 2008 financial...