Is the US stock market overvalued? I use Shiller's CAPE to predict the return of investing in the S&P500 index. Siegel argues that the recent fall in the share of earnings that are paid out as dividends has biased downwards predictions from the CAPE. I offer a solution to the problem of reduced...

This paper explores the relationship between manufacturing and growth rate in recent years. We undertake a simple cross-country analysis using UN data. When controlling for variables relevant to growth, we find no significant relationship between the two variables. We argue that manufacturing...

Jared Kizerís analysis indicates the return to stock-picking skills is not enough to offset the additional transactions costs of a managed portfolio. Thus the superior performance of Vanguardís managed portfolio was due entirely to its tendency to overweight small stocks and value stocks...

We consider an economy (e.g., Chile 1973-83 or modern Turkey) with a minimum wage sector and a free sector, and a tax on labor earnings. We ask "Can a slightly binding minimum wage simultaneously raise tax revenue, employment, and economic efficiency?" We answer "Yes, if the elasticity of demand...

Is there any justification for investing in managed mutual funds, or are managed funds for suckers, as indexing advocates argue? We answer this question by looking at a long time span of real fund returns (27 years) for one specific company (Vanguard) that is notable for its low fees on managed...

Sebastian Edwards and Alejandra Cox Edwards in their analysis of the Chilean economic liberalization argue that both capital inflows and outflows may have harmed the Chilean economy. They model the Chilean economy as using labor and fixed factors to produce traded and non-traded goods subject to...