Probabilistic forecasts are necessary for robust decisions in the face of uncertainty. The M5 Uncertainty competition required participating teams to forecast nine quantiles for unit sales of various products at various aggregation levels and for different time horizons. This paper evaluates the...

This paper suggests a new normative approach for combining beliefs. We call it the evidence-first method. Instead of aggregating credences alone, as the prevailing approaches, we focus instead on eliciting a group's full probability distribution on the basis of the evidence available to its...

Almost stochastic dominance allows small violations of stochastic dominance rules to avoid situations where most decision makers prefer one alternative to another but stochastic dominance cannot rank them. While the idea behind almost stochastic dominance is quite promising, it has not caught on...