Due to the increasing popularity of gold as an investment the demand for effective risk management techniques for gold investments has increased as well. In this paper we analyze several drivers of the price of gold that have been proposed in the past. Our analysis indicates that short-term...

This analysis aims at developing forecasting models for both commodity volatility and commodity returns based on monthly data. I show that standard models of realized volatility are able to outperform both GARCH models and the random walk in terms of in-sample explanation power and out-of-sample...

We update our annual analysis of expected returns for 38 equity markets around the world. For the first time since we started our series in 2012, we find most emerging markets now exhibit higher expected returns than developed markets. In particular the expected returns for the core European...

We update our annual analysis of expected returns for 38 equity markets around the world. Based on current CAPE valuations, we expect mid to high single-digit yearly returns in most developed equity markets. However, risks are elevated for some markets. We specifically investigate drawdown risk...

If risk aversion and willingness to take on risk are driven by emotions and we as humans are bad at correctly identifying them, the finance profession has a serious challenge at hand—how to reliably identify the individual risk profile of a retail investor or high-net-worth individual. In this...

The integration of ESG factors into the investment process is increasingly becoming mainstream for institutional investors. However, investors struggle with how to incorporate ESG criteria into their top-down asset allocation decisions. In this report we show how ESG criteria can be...

Chapter 9 of Geo-Economics: The Interplay between Geopolitics, Economics, and Investments focuses on one of the most pressing global challenges for politics and humankind alike: climate change. Climate change is already triggering more intense and more frequent extreme weather events—cyclones,...

We test the reliability of the Cyclically Adjusted PE (CAPE) or Shiller PE as a forecasting and valuation tool for 35 countries including emerging markets. We find that the Shiller-PE is a reliable long-term valuation indicator for developed and emerging markets and we use the indicator to...