In the current credit crisis there is little or no trade in a variety of financial assets, even though bids and asks exist for many of these assets. We develop a model in which this illiquidity arises from uncertainty, and we argue that this new form of illiquidity makes bid and ask prices...

We demonstrate how a machine learning algorithm can be applied to predict and explain modern market microstructure phenomena. We investigate the efficacy of various microstructure measures and show that they continue to provide insights into price dynamics in current complex markets. Some...

We investigate the effect of ambiguity about hedge fund investment strategies on asset prices and aggregate welfare. We model some traders (mutual funds) as facing ambiguity about the equilibrium trading strategies of other traders (hedge funds). This ambiguity limits the ability of mutual funds...

The ‘flash crash' of May 6th 2010 was the second largest point swing (1,010.14 points) and the biggest one-day point decline (998.5 points) in the history of the Dow Jones Industrial Average. For a few minutes, $1 trillion in market value vanished. In this paper, we argue that the ‘flash...

Execution traders know that market impact greatly depends on whether their orders lean with or against the market. We introduce the OEH model, which incorporates this fact when determining the optimal trading horizon for an order, an input required by many sophisticated execution strategies....

Recently exchanges have been directly selling market data. We analyze how this practice affects price discovery, the cost of capital, return volatility, and market liquidity. We show that selling price data increases the cost of capital and volatility, worsens market efficiency and liquidity,...

We investigate the new reality of exchange-traded funds (ETFs). We show that many ETFs are active investments in form (designed to generate alpha) or function (serve as building blocks of active portfolios). The median ETF has an Activeness Index of 93.1%. Active-in-form ETFs have positive...

How best to discern trading intentions from market data? We examine the accuracy of three methods for classifying trade data: bulk volume classification (BVC), Tick Rule and Aggregated Tick Rule. We develop a Bayesian model of inferring information from trade executions, and show the conditions...

We investigate the role that transaction fees play in the Bitcoin blockchain's evolution from a mining-based structure to a market-based ecology. We develop a game-theoretic model to explain the factors leading to the emergence of transactions fees, as well as to explain the strategic behavior...