In this article, a new approach for model specification is proposed. The method allows to choose the correct order of a mixture model by testing, if a particular mixture component is significant. The hypotheses are set in a new way, in order to avoid identification problems, which are typical...

In this article, a new approach for model specification is proposed. The method allows to choose the correct order of a mixture model by testing, if a particular mixture component is significant. The hypotheses are set in a new way, in order to avoid identification problems, which are typical...

In this paper we investigate whether considering the fine structure of half-hourly electricity prices, the market closing prices of fundamentals (natural gas, coal and CO2) and the system-wide demand can lead to significantly more accurate short- and mid-term forecasts of APX UK baseload prices....

We show that incorporating the intra-day and inter-zone relationships of electricity prices in the Pennsylvania--New Jersey--Maryland (PJM) Interconnection improves the accuracy of short- and medium-term forecasts of average daily prices for a major PJM market hub -- the Dominion Hub in...

Probabilistic load forecasting is becoming crucial in today's power systems planning and operations. We propose a novel methodology to compute interval forecasts of electricity demand, which applies a Quantile Regression Averaging (QRA) technique to a set of independent expert point forecasts....

Using an agent-based modeling approach we show how personal attributes, like conformity or indifference, impact opinions of individual electricity consumers regarding innovative dynamic tariff programs. We also examine the influence of advertising, discomfort of usage and the expectations of...

In the paper, Structural Vector Autoregressive models (SVAR) are used to identify fundamental and speculative shocks, in the UK electricity market. The structural shocks are identified via short run restrictions, which are imposed on the matrix of instantaneous effects. In the research, two main...

We show that incorporating the intra-day relationships of electricity prices improves the accuracy of forecasts of daily electricity spot prices. We use half-hourly data from the UK power market to model the spot prices directly (via ARX and Vector ARX models) and indirectly (via factor models)....