Die Kursentwicklung von Währungen wird häufig vor dem Hintergrund der Entwicklung der jeweiligen Geldmarktzinsen kommentiert, wobei ein Anstieg der Kurzfristzinsen in einem Währungsraum typischerweise eine Aufwertung der entsprechenden Währung nach sich zieht. Im Zuge der Finanzkrise hatten...

Die ultralockere Geldpolitik der Federal Reserve seit dem Platzen der Dot-Com-Blase hat zu einer anhaltenden Diskussion über ihre Auswirkungen auf den internationalen Kapitalverkehr geführt. Die Beobachtung, dass Vermögenspreise im Wesentlichen durch globale Liquiditäts- und Risikofaktoren...

While some of the recent surge of oil prices can be attributed to robust global demandat a time of tight production capacities, commentators occasionally also blame theimpact of speculators for part of the price pressure. We propose an empirical oil market model with heterogeneous speculators....

Though unambiguously outperforming all other ¯nancial markets in terms of liquidity,foreign exchange trading is still performed in opaque and decentralized markets. In par-ticular, the two-tier market structure consisting of a customer segment and an interdealersegment to which only market...

Though unambiguously outperforming all other financial markets in terms of liquidity, foreign exchange trading is still performed in opaque and decentralized markets. In particular, the two-tier market structure consisting of a customer segment and an interdealer segment to which only market...

This paper investigates the determinants of forecast heterogeneity in the Yen-US dollar market using a panel data set from Consensus Economics. Regardless of the particular model specification and consideration of control variables we find that exchange rate misalignments increase forecast...

We use oil price forecasts from the Consensus Economic Forecast poll to analyze how forecaster build their expectations. Our findings point into the direction that the extrapolative as well as the regressive expectation formation hypothesis play a role. Standard measures of forecast accuracy...

Heterogenous agents models have proven to be capable of explaining price dynamics on speculative markets. In general, this is achieved by allowing time series properties to be state dependent. This paper investigates whether market participants' expectations already reflect these time varying...

We develop a behavioral exchange rate model with chartists and fundamentalists to study cyclical behavior in foreign exchange markets. Within our model, the market impact of fundamentalists depends on the strength of their belief in fundamental analysis. Estimation of a STAR GARCH model shows...

In contrast to academic recommendations monetary authorities all over the world intervene on the foreign exchange market to actively manage the exchange rate. Particularly in the aftermath of the global financial crisis the exchange rate is abused by some countries in a currency war to...