The cointegrated VAR model is proposed as an empirically coherent framework for analyzing macroeconomic phenomena within a dynamic system of pulling and pushing forces. As an illustration we show how an economic theory for inflation and money demand gives rise to a number of hypotheses...

This paper discusses a number of likelihood ratio tests on long-run relations and common trends in the I(2) model and provide new results on the test of overidentifying restrictions on β’xt and the asymptotic variance for the stochastic trends parameters, α⊥1: How to specify deterministic...

This paper presents a cointegrated VAR analysis of monetary transmission mechanisms and changes in them after Spain joined the EMS in 1989. Analyses of long-run price homogeneity within the I(2) model turned out to be crucial for understanding the joint behaviour of money, income, prices, and...

Beyer, Doornik and Hendry (2000, 2001) show analytically that three out of four aggregation methods yield problematic results when exchange rate shifts induce relative-price changes between individual countries and found the least problematic method to be the variable weight method of growth...

The notions of instrument, intermediate target and final target are defined in the context of the cointegrated VAR. A target variable is said to be controllable if it can be made stationary around a desired target value by using the instrument. This can be expressed as a condition on the...

The focus is on nominal transmission mechanisms in Italy with special reference to monetary effects and how they have changed with the increased economic integration in Europe and the increased independence of Italian Central Bank. The empirical model investigates the dynamic determination of...

We describe the concept of cointegration, its implications in modelling and forecasting, and discuss inference procedures appropriate in integrated-cointegrated vector autoregressive processes (VARs). Particular attention is paid to the properties of VARs, to the modelling of deterministic...

The focus is on ’explosive root VAR’ modelling of money, prices, wages, and exchange rates applied to the Jugoslav high inflation/hyperinflation transition period from a centrally planned economy to a more market oriented economy. The I(2) model, which has previously been used to estimate...

In this paper we investigate the extent to which a number of key parity conditions hold within and between the USA and Japan. Previous research has demonstrated that the nonstationarity of the "simple" parity conditions was related to the nonstationarity of the real exchange rate, reflecting the...

The paper discusses the determination of wages, prices, productivity and unemployment in the Euro-wide area in the post Bretton Woods period. The econometric results provide strong evidence on a regime shift at the start of the EMS and the empirical analysis is done separately for the two...