Very useful information, usually ignored, for construction of coincident index is the target quarterly series itself. This can be very inefficient because typically the monthly coincident series keep just high economical correlation, not always tested, with the quarterly target series. Actually,...

In this paper we perform and evaluate, in sample, some methodologies for building of coincident indicators focusing on the detection of business cycle of the Industrial activity. In respect of selection of coincident series for the Brazilian case, we will lean on recent literature (SPACOV,...

In this paper we implement and evaluate several forecast econometric vectorial autoregressivemodels for quarterly Industrial GDP. We have built co-integration vectorrestriction for several sets of variables (Industrial GDP, long interest rates, short interestrates, spread, inflation) in order to...

The goal of this paper is to test the Husted model and to inspect the long-run sustainability of Brazilian current account in a very specific period of time (1996-2005) by the use of monthly data. We have tested the inter-temporal budget constraints (IBC) condition via unit root test with...

The goal of this paper is to test the Husted model and to inspect the long-runsustainability of Brazilian current account in a very specific period of time (1996-2005) by the use of monthly data. We have tested the inter-temporal budgetconstraints (IBC) condition via unit root test with...

The goal of this paper is to test the Husted model and to inspect the long-run sustainability of Brazilian current account in a very specific period of time (1996-2005) by the use of monthly data. We have tested the inter-temporal budget constraints (IBC) condition via unit root test with...

The mixed autoregressive causal-noncausal model (MAR) has been proposed to estimate economic relationships involving explosive roots in their autoregressive part, as they have stationary forward solutions. In previous work, possible exogenous variables in economic relationships are substituted...

In this paper we use the standard factor models to compose common-factor portfolios by a novel linear transformation extracted from large data sets of asset returns. Although the transformation proposed here retains the basic properties of the usual common factors, some interesting new...

This paper investigates the recent boom od the Brazilian trade surplus by estimating a partial adjustment model for exports and imports. The results indicate that exports quantum is basically explained by the income of the rest of the world and by the gap of domestic output. The role of the...