Decreases in stock market returns often lead to higher increases in volatility than increases in returns of the same magnitude, and it is common to incorporate these so-called leverage effects in GARCH and stochastic volatility models. Recent research has also found it useful to account for...

This paper studies linear and nonlinear autoregressive leading indicator models of business cycles in G7 countries. The models use the spread between short-term and long-term interest rates as leading indicators for GDP, and their success in capturing business cycles is gauged by non-parametric...

This paper proposes neural network based measures of predictability in conditional mean, and then uses them to construct nonlinear analogues to autocorrelograms and partial autocorrelograms. In contrast to other measures of nonlinear dependence that rely on nonparametric estimation of densities...

Realized volatility of stock returns is often decomposed into two distinct components that are attributed to continuous price variation and jumps. This paper proposes a tobit multivariate factor model for the jumps coupled with a standard multivariate factor model for the continuous sample path...

The 2011 Clean Energy Act sought to align Australia’s carbon pricing to the 2005 European Union Emission Trading Scheme (EU-ETS) by 2015, but this act was repealed in 2014. We estimate the hypothetical impact of Australia adopting an emissions trading policy in 2005, which corresponds with the...

Global mean surface temperature has been increasing in response to growing greenhouse gas concentrations (IPCC, 2021). While Earth is getting warmer overall, regions that differ in local geographical features experience unequal increases in temperature. In this paper, we develop a dynamic...