This paper revisits the extent of seasonality in African livelihoods, which has disappeared from Africa's development debate. Through econometric analysis of monthly food price series across 100 locations in three countries during 2000-12, it is shown that seasonal movements in maize wholesale...

International commodity agreements (ICAs) fit uneasily in a world in which markets are becoming globalized and increasingly competitive. Development policy - both as preached by international agencies and as practiced by typically democratically elected and nonsocialist governments in the major...

Measurement forms the substance of econometrics. This chapter outlines the history of econometrics from a measurement perspective - how have measurement errors been dealt with and how, from a methodological standpoint, did econometrics evolve so as to represent theory more adequately in relation...

We characterize modern econometrics in terms of the emergence a widely accepted analytical framework. A major theme which dominated much of the debate through the century was whether and how econometric models can reflect theory-generated economic structures. In the period prior to the 2nd world...

Textbook discussions of discrete choice modelling focus on binomial and multinomial choice models in which agents select a single response. We consider the situation of non-exclusive multinomial choice. The widely used Marginal Logit Model imposes independence and has other disadvantages. We...

Dynamic representation of spot and three‐month aluminum and copper volatilities is considered. Aluminum and copper are the two most important metals traded in the London Metal Exchange. They share common business cycle factors and are traded under identical contract specifications. The...

An extended version of the S. Beveridge and C. R. Nelson (1981) decomposition and a latent variable approach are used to examine how the noise content, and therefore the informativeness, of four aluminum prices that have been quoted at various times since 1970—the (now defunct) U.S. producer...

Plenary presentation from 123rd EAAE Seminar, 23-24 February, Dublin, Ireland