This paper empirically examines the probability and intensity of financial crises during the 1990s with a view to informing crisis prevention and mitigation policies. The econometric analysis uses a decision-theoretic approach, rather than the more standard general-to-specific approach, to...

In this paper, we estimate a theory-consistent model of single parents labour supply behaviour using a variant of the semi-log labour supply function. The underlying preferences are used to simulate the impact of a proposed reform to the Family Credit element of the UK Social Security system...

This paper uses Monte Carlo methods to investigate the effects of asymmetric adjustment on estimates of the parameters of the equilibrium relationship between a set of variables.We demonstrate that simple least squares estimates and the implicit estimates from a symmetric error correction model...

This paper introduces a new measure of dependence or jointness among explanatory variables. Jointness is based on the joint posterior distribution of variables over the model space, thereby taking model uncertainty into account. By looking beyond marginal measures of variable importance,...

This paper investigates the robustness of determinants of economic growth in the presence of model uncertainty, parameter heterogeneity and outliers. The robust model averaging approach introduced in the paper uses a flexible and parsimonious mixture modeling that allows for fat-tailed errors...

In models with unobserved taste heterogeneity, distributional assumptions can be placed in two ways: (1) by specifying the distribution of coefficients in the utility function and deriving the distribution of willingness to pay (wtp), or (2) by specifying the distribution of wtp and deriving the...

This paper examines religious and non-religious service provision by religious organisations in India. We present a stylized Hotelling-style model in which two religious organisations differentiate hemselves on the strength of religious beliefs in order to compete in attracting adherents. We...

This paper investigates the importance of managerial capital to involuntary insolvency and acquisition in UK small and medium-sized companies. Given that small businesses are informationally opaque and lack detailed financial data, the role of non-financial factors such as managerial capital has...