We model equilibrium spot and futures oil prices in a general equilibrium production economy. In our model production of the consumption good requires two inputs: the consumption good and a commodity, e.g., Oil. Oil is produced by wells whose flow rate is costly to adjust. Investment in new Oil...

We develop a three-factor Gaussian model of commodity spot prices, convenience yields and interest rates, which extends previous research (e.g., Brennan (1991), Gibson and Schwartz (1990), Schwartz (1997), Ross (1997), Schwartz and Smith (2000)) in two ways. First, the model is maximal, and thus...

We model equilibrium spot and futures oil prices in a general equilibrium production economy. In our model production of the consumption good requires two inputs: the consumption good and a commodity, e.g., Oil. Oil is produced by wells whose flow rate is costly to adjust. Investment in new Oil...

We model oil price dynamics in a general equilibrium production economy with two goods: a consumption good and oil. Production of the consumption good requires drawing from oil reserves. Investment necessary to replenish oil reserves is costly and irreversible. We solve for the optimal...

<section xml:id="fut21649-sec-0001"> This study extends the maximal affine models of single assets to a multi‐commodity setup. We show that the correlated version of maximal affine models for a single commodity is no longer maximal for multiple commodities. In the maximal model, the convenience yield of a certain commodity could...</section>

We build an equilibrium model to disentangle industry-specific from business cycle effects of oil on stock returns. In our model oil is considered as an input factor for production and also as a macro variable. We estimate the model for 13 industries, including the oil industry. Our results...

This paper finds that the long-term co-movement of commodity prices is driven by economic relationships, such as production, substitution, and complementary relationships. Such relationships imply that the convenience yield of a given commodity depends on its relative scarcity with respect to...

This paper shows that oil price changes, measured as short-term futures returns, are a strong predictor of excess stock returns at short horizons. Ours is a leading variable for the business cycle and exhibits low persistence which avoids the ctitious long-horizon predictability associated to...

We study the consumption and hedging strategy of an oil-importing developing country that faces multiple crude oil shocks. In our model, developing countries have two particular characteristics: their economies are mainly driven by natural resources and their technologies are less e cient in...